In April 2025, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) solidified a pivotal regulation at its MEPC 83 meeting, laying the foundation for a carbon emissions trading market set to reshape the maritime industry.
Effective from March 2027, the revised MARPOL Annex VI introduces a Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Fuel Intensity (GFI) standard for ships ≥5,000 gross tons. This applies to approximately 35,000 vessels worldwide, each of which will now be required to calculate their annual GFI and compare it against IMO-defined targets.
Vessels that exceed their GFI target will face compliance deficits. These can be resolved in two ways: by purchasing Surplus Units (credits generated by over-compliant vessels) or by acquiring Remedial Units, which are priced in two tiers:
- Tier 1: $100/ton CO2eq
- Tier 2: $380/ton CO2eq
A recent analysis estimates that in 2028 alone, 95% of the global fleet will fall short of targets, creating a net deficit of approximately 43 million tons of CO2eq. The corresponding carbon market is projected to reach a value of $6.7 billion:
- $5.4 billion from Remedial Units
- $1.3 billion from Surplus Unit trading
By 2035, the market could expand to $8–9 billion as stricter targets come into effect. The cost of non-compliance will significantly influence commercial decision-making, making emissions data as crucial as cargo manifests.
How Greensee Supports Market Readiness
Greensee equips shipping companies with the tools they need to manage both compliance and opportunity in the maritime GHG market:
- TRACE identifies fuel-efficient routing to reduce overall GHG output
- VISTA offers real-time emissions monitoring and carbon reporting aligned with IMO and EU ETS standards
- RISE enables accurate tracking and potential deduction of reefer energy consumption, a growing factor in emissions audits
With Greensee, you gain not only insights but a competitive edge in the evolving carbon-regulated landscape. To learn more, visit greensee.ai or connect with our specialists.